Mikheil Saakashvili, President of Georgia, has taken decision to replace Prime Minister of Georgia. Lado Gurgenidze, “the most successful and modern Georgian businessman”, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the “Bank of Georgia”, will replace Zurab Noghaideli, former Prime Minister of Georgia. The opposition and authorities have different views on the aforementioned staff reshuffle. Representatives of the government of Georgia declare that Zurab Noghaideli quitted the position due to worsening of health condition. According to the viewpoint of the opposition, nobody leaves his/her post on the basis of his/her decision in the acting government. What are the motives of president’s decision? Is the replacement of the Prime Minister of Georgia an effective move or not? Prime-News tried to receive answers on these and other important questions from political expert Davit Gamtsemlidze.
- Mr. Gamtsemlidze, how do you think why the President of Georgia replaced Prime Minister? Is the country in need of a new Prime Minister or no common interests links Mikheil Saakashvili to the old one anymore?
D.G. – Most experts and analysts think that the initiator of the Prime Minister's resignation was Mikheil Saakashvili, but I am not sure that the initiator of Zurab Noghaideli's resignation was the President of Georgia and not Zurab Noghaideli himself (especially if we take into account the complicated situation in Georgia). We ought to pay attention to certain vitally important circumstances, namely Mikheil Saakashvili took several important decisions before he dismissed the cabinet of ministers. Concretely the President of Georgia took decision to increase salaries and pensions. All these steps were beyond the frames of financial and economic policy implemented by Zurab Noghaideli and his cabinet of ministers since 2005, as the growth of expenditures will inevitably lead to the increase of the inflation rate. Whereas keeping inflation under control was one of the main goals of Zurab Noghaideli. Low rate of inflation, balanced and non-deficient budget, the increase of "pillow" of monetary reserves were among the priorities of Zurab Noghaideli. Consequently, Zurab Noghaideli was incompatible with these new trends outlined recently, as the aforementioned trends and policy conducted by Zurab Noghaideli came into collision with one another. And if we take into consideration that he is very ambitious and at the same time emotional person, it is not excluded that he himself refused to carry out policy he disagrees to. On the other hand, I do not agree to the viewpoint that Mikheil Saakashvili used Zurab Noghaideli as scapegoat, as there are many even more "demonized" figures in the acting cabinet of ministers.
- Do you evaluate staff reshuffle as the president's attempt to settle down conflict with society?
D.G. – The dismissal of cabinet of ministers two or three days early before the president's resignation contains many political threats and of course Mikheil Saakashvili is aware of these threats, but if we suppose that the president of Georgia has taken decision to dismiss the cabinet of ministers in order to solve certain social problems of a political character in this case, in my opinion, he made a serious mistake. The problem that we faced on November 07 on Rustaveli Avenue has more mental character than social. A real conflict, which was the leit-motif of recent crisis in Georgia, would not be settled, even if Georgia had enough resources to solve some problems of social character. I repeat this is a conflict of a mental character, which is in the state of deep and painful transformation, in other words, even if pensions and salaries are doubled, even if natural gas, electricity, sugar and salt become entirely free of charge; the above-mentioned problem, conflict will not be uprooted. Still the acting government will be inadmissible from viewpoint of values for thousands of people. They will always gather on Rustaveli Avenue and will always demand the resignation of president and will be always ready to defend their own values, paying no attention to the fact that they promote destabilization in the country. Such people take president's recent steps as the demonstration of weakness and not as the demonstration of good will, consequently president fails to defuse situation and on the contrary he risks a lot, as new problems will appear very soon for example: the increase of inflation, macroeconomic success might be replaced by economical stagnation, devaluation of national currency, reduction of monetary reserves and so on.
- Do they have enough time left to undergo all procedures required for the nomination of a new candidature on the post of Prime Minister of Georgia?
D.G. – The President of Georgia will officially present the candidature of Lado Gurgenidze on the position of Prime Minister to the Parliament of Georgia soon. The debatable issue is whether the legislative body of Georgia is able to approve Lado Gurgenidze on the post of Prime Minister before the president's resignation or not. There is one more important thing we ought to pay attention to: Lado Gurgenidze will have to hold consultations with Nino Burjanadze, Chairwoman of the Parliament of Georgia, who will become the acting president of Georgia after Mikheil Saakshviili's resignation, concerning a new composition of cabinet of ministers and I do not think that Nino Burjanadze will support all candidatures.
- Does the Georgian society have to expect any type of sacrifice?
D.G. – It is not excluded that the so-called "carrousel", aimed at the diffusion of situation, will go around, but, in my opinion, no scandalous changes will be made, certain ministers will just exchange their posts. I will be really surprised if the president dismisses force ministers.
- The President of Georgia has often put special emphases on Zurab Noghaideli's achievements and merits. How will you evaluate Noghaideli's achievements and how do you think what Lado Gurgenidze will change?
D.G. – The government of Zurab Noghaideli managed to achieve excellent microeconomic indices on account of radical reforms, offending and leaving thousands of peoples without work. To my mind, Lado Gurgenidze is the symbol of softening of the aforementioned radical course, even on the account of reduction of macroeconomic indices and pace of economic growth. But as I mentioned above this cannot solve the problem mainly related to clash of values and interests.
- Will Mikheil Saakashvili regain trust of the Georgian population and wil he win the presidential elections?
D.G. – I am absolutely sure that if Mikheil Saakashvili manages to avoid revolution, he will inevitably win the presidential elections scheduled for January 05 2008.
